Length of Stay Analysis of COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit Admissions Using Count Regression and Hurdle Regression Models: A Study in a Tertiary Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa (preprint)

Objective: To evaluate the variables influencing the length of stay (LoS) for COVID-19 ICU patients at Tygerberg Hospital (Cape Town) and to identify the covariates that significantly influenced it and any potential risk factors associated with LoS. Methods and Results: Poisson, negative binomial (NB), Hurdle–Poisson, and Hurdle–NB regression models were used to model the LoS in this prospective cohort study. The fitted models were compared using the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Vuong’s test criteria, and Rootograms. Based on the chosen performance criteria, the NB model provided the best fit outperforming other candidate models. The baseline LoS count was 8 days. On average, antibiotics reduced LoS by 0.74-fold (95% CI 0.62-0.89) compared to not taking antibiotics. The second wave had a significant effect on the average LoS, which decreased by 0.36-fold (95% CI 0.14-0.93) compared to the first wave. Average LoS increased by 1.01-fold (95% CI 1.01-1.02) for every one-year increase in the age of the patient and by 1.02-fold (95% CI 1.01-1.03) for every 1 unit increase in neutrophils. A 1 ng/L increase in log (TropT) levels decreased the average LoS by 0.87-fold (95% CI 0.81-0.93) similarly, a unit increase in the PF ratio decreased the average LoS by 0.998-fold (95% CI 0.997-0.999) respectively. Conclusion: The study identified common clinical characteristics associated with length of stay in ICU for COVID-19 patients, including age at admission, PF ratio, neutrophils, TropT, Wave, and antibiotic use. These results can aid in identifying risk factors for increased length of stay, assist in healthcare systems planning, and aid in evaluating different models for analysing this type of data.

Prognostic Value of Baseline Biochemical Parameters Among Severe COVID-19 Patients Admitted to an Intensive Care Unit of a Tertiary Hospital in South Africa. (preprint)

Background: Data on biochemical markers and their association with mortality rates observed in patients with severe COVID-19 disease admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICUs) in sub-Saharan Africa are scanty. We performed an evaluation of baseline routine biochemical parameters as prognostic biomarkers in COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU. Methods: Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected prospectively on patients with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the adult ICU in a tertiary hospital in Cape Town, South Africa, between October 2020 and February 2021. Robust Poisson regression methods and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to explore the association of biochemical parameters with severity and mortality. Results: A total of 82 patients [(median age 53.8 years (IQR: 46.4-59.7)] were enrolled, of whom 27 (33%) were male. The median duration of ICU stay was 10 days (IQR: 5-14); 54/82 (66% CFR) patients died. Baseline lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (aRR: 1.002, 95%CI: 1.0004-1.004; P = 0.016) and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NTProBNP) (aRR: 1.0004, 95%CI: 1.0001-1.0007; P = 0.014) were both independent risk factors of a poor prognosis with optimal cut-off values of 449.5 U/L (sensitivity: 1; specificity: 0.43) and 551 pg/mL (sensitivity: 0.49; specificity: 0.86), respectively. Conclusion: LDH and NTProBNP appear to be promising predictors of COVID-19 poor prognosis in the ICU. Larger sample size studies are required to confirm the validity of this combination of biomarkers.

Communicable and non-communicable co-morbidities and the presentation of COVID-19 in an African setting of high HIV-1 and tuberculosis prevalence (preprint)

Objectives To describe the presentation and outcome of SARS-CoV2 infection in an African setting of high non-communicable co-morbidity and also HIV-1 and tuberculosis prevalence. Design Case control analysis with cases stratified by HIV-1 and tuberculosis status. Setting A single-centre observational case-control study of adults admitted to a South African hospital with proven SARS-CoV-2 infection or alternative diagnosis. Participants 104 adults with RT-PCR-proven SARS-CoV2 infection of which 55 (52.9%) were male and 31 (29.8%) HIV-1 co-infected. 40 adults (35.7% male, 30.9% HIV-1 co-infected) admitted during the same period with no RT-PCR or serological evidence of SARS-CoV2 infection and assigned alternative diagnoses. Additional in vitro data from prior studies of 72 healthy controls and 118 HIV-1 uninfected and infected persons participants enrolled to a prior study with either immune evidence of tuberculosis sensitization but no symptoms or microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. Results Two or more co-morbidities were present in 57.7% of 104 RT-PCR proven COVID-19 presentations, the commonest being hypertension (48%), type 2 diabetes mellitus (39%), obesity (31%) but also HIV-1 (30%) and active tuberculosis (14%). Amongst patients dually infected by tuberculosis and SARS-CoV-2, clinical features could be dominated by either SARS-CoV-2 or tuberculosis: lymphopenia was exacerbated, and some markers of inflammation (D-dimer and ferritin) elevated in singly SARS-CoV-2 infected patients were even further elevated (p less than 0.05). HIV-1 and SARS-CoV2 co-infection resulted in lower absolute number and proportion of CD4 lymphocytes, with those in the lowest peripheral CD4 percentage strata exhibiting absent or lower antibody responses against SARS-CoV2. Death occurred in 30/104 (29%) of all COVID-19 patients and in 6/15 (40%) of patients with coincident SARS-CoV-2 and tuberculosis. Conclusions In this South African setting, HIV-1 and tuberculosis are common co-morbidities in patients presenting with COVID-19. In environments in which tuberculosis is common, SARS-CoV-2 and tuberculosis may co-exist with clinical presentation being typical of either disease. Clinical suspicion of exacerbation of co-existent tuberculosis accompanying SARS-CoV-2 should be high.